Stochastic modeling of the <i>Monkeypox</i> 2022 epidemic with cross-infection hypothesis in a highly disturbed environment

Abstract

<abstract><p><italic>Monkeypox</italic> 2022, a new re-emerging disease, is caused by the <italic>Monkeypox</italic> virus. Structurally, this virus is related to the smallpox virus and infects the host in a similar way; however, the symptoms of <italic>Monkeypox</italic> are more severe. In this research work, a mathematical model for understanding the dynamics of <italic>Monkeypox</italic> 2022 is suggested that takes into account two modes of transmission: horizontal human dissemination and cross-infection between animals and humans. Due to lack of substantial knowledge about the virus diffusion and the effect of external perturbations, the model is extended to the probabilistic formulation with Lévy jumps. The proposed model is a two block compartmental system that requires the form of Itô-Lévy stochastic differential equations. Based on some assumptions and nonstandard analytical techniques, two principal asymptotic properties are proved: the eradication and continuation in the mean of <italic>Monkeypox</italic> 2022. The outcomes of the study reveals that the dynamical behavior of the proposed <italic>Monkeypox</italic> 2022 system is chiefly governed by some parameters that are precisely correlated with the noise intensities. To support the obtained theoretical finding, examples based on numerical simulations and real data are presented at the end of the study. The numerical simulations also exhibit the impact of the innovative adopted mathematical techniques on the findings of this work.</p></abstract>