A MULTI-OBJECTIVE RISK-BASED FRAMEWORK FOR MISSION CAPABILITY PLANNING

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a risk-based framework for military capability planning. Within this framework, metaheuristic techniques such as Evolutionary Algorithms are used to deal with multi-objectivity of a class of NP-hard resource investment problems, called The Mission Capability Planning Problem, under the presence of risk factors. This problem inherently has at least two conflicting objectives: minimizing the cost of investment in the resources as well as the makespan of the plans. The framework allows the addition of a risk-based objective to the problem in order to support risk assessment during the planning process. In other words, with this framework, a mechanism of progressive risk assessment is introduced to capability planning.We analyze the performance of the proposed framework under both scenarios: with and without risk. In the case of no risk, the purpose is to study several optimization-related aspects of the framework such as convergence, trade-off analysis, and its sensitivity to the algorithm parameters; while the second case is to demonstrate the ability of the framework in supporting risk assessment and also robustness analysis.