Final size of an n-group SEIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate

Abstract

Calculation of the final infection size has become a topic of significant interest in recent years. Despite considerable progress, determining the final infection size in a heterogeneous infectious disease model with nonlinear incidence rate on short-time scales remains a challenging problem. In this paper, we investigate a heterogeneous [Formula: see text] epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate. We establish both the existence and uniqueness of the solution regarding final size, and based on which, we are able to introduce a computational algorithm to calculate the final infection size. Furthermore, we apply our findings to study the early phase of the COVID-19 endemic in New York County and present a numerical simulation to illustrate the practical implications of our approach.