Trade War Actions, Reporting Strategies, and Stock Market Reactions

Abstract

Investors’ perceptions of uncertainty have increased since Donald Trump’s inauguration, primarily as a result of trade frictions. In the context of China-US trade frictions, this study investigates the joint effects of the actions of the parties and media tone on the Chinese stock market. The trade friction reports are classified into 12 groups based on two dimensions, that is, the actions of the parties and the tone of the state-controlled media. The result shows that the role played by the state-controlled media depends on the actions taken by both the parties, as well as the type of firms. Specifically, when the US took action, either launched attacks or made concessions, adopting a high tone played some role in boosting returns and curbing fluctuations; adjusting reporting strategies also played some role in elevating the liquidity of both types of firms and influencing domestic southbound investments. Market reactions were more influenced by the actions than the official attitudes when China made concessions or when both sides took action (attacks or concessions).