Dose-response modelling of endemic coronavirus and SARS-CoV-2: human challenge trials reveal the individual variation in susceptibility

Abstract

AbstractWe propose a mathematical framework to analyze and interpret the outcomes of human challenge trials. We present plausible infection risks with HCoV-229E and SARS-CoV-2 over a wide range of infectious dose, and suggest ways to improve the design of future trials and to translate its outcomes to the general population.One sentence summaryWe rephrase dose-response models in terms of heterogeneity in susceptibility in order to present the possible range of infection risks for endemic coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2