A novel SEIR-e model for disease transmission and pathogen exposure

Abstract

AbstractIn this study, we couple compartment models for indoor air quality and disease transmission to develop a novel SEIR-e model for disease transmission and pathogen exposure. In doing so, we gain insight into the contribution of people–people and people–pathogen interactions to the spread of transmissible diseases. A general modelling framework is used to assess the risk of infection in indoor environments due to people–pathogen interactions via inhalation of viral airborne aerosols, and contact with contaminated surfaces. We couple the indoor environment model with a standard disease transmission model to investigate how both people–people and people–pathogen interactions result in disease transmission. The coupled model is referred to as the SEIR-e model. To demonstrate the applicability of the SEIR-e model and the novel insights it can provide into different exposure pathways, parameter values which describe exposure due to people–people and people–pathogen interactions are inferred using Bayesian techniques and case data relating to the 2020 outbreak of COVID-19 in Victoria (Australia).