Role of meteorological temperature and relative humidity in the January-February 2020 propagation of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan, China

Abstract

AbstractIdentified in December 2019, the 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China, and its spread increased rapidly, with cases arising across Mainland China and several other countries. By January 2020, the potential risks imposed by 2019-nCoV in human health and economical activity were promptly highlighted. Considerable efforts have been devoted for understanding the transmission mechanisms aimed to pursue public policies oriented to mitigate the number of infected and deaths. An important question requiring some attention is the role of meteorological variables (e.g., temperature and humidity) in the 2019-nCoV transmission. Correlations between meteorological temperature and relative humidity with the number of daily confirmed cases were explored in this work for the epicenter city of Wuhan, China for the period from 29 January to March 6, 2020. Long-term trend of temperature and relative humidity was obtained with a 14-days adjacent-averaging filter, and lagged correlations of the number of daily confirmed cases were explored. The analysis showed negative correlations between temperatures with the number of daily confirmed cases. Maximum correlations were found for 6-day lagged temperatures, which is likely reflecting the incubation period of the virus. It was postulated that the indoor crowding effect is responsible of the high incidence of 2019-nCoV cases, where low absolute humidity and close human contact facilitate the transport of aerosol droplets.