Author:
Kissler Stephen M.,Tedijanto Christine,Goldstein Edward M.,Grad Yonatan H.,Lipsitch Marc
Abstract
AbstractThere is an urgent need to project how transmission of the novel betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2 will unfold in coming years. These dynamics will depend on seasonality, the duration of immunity, and the strength of cross-immunity to/from the other human coronaviruses. Using data from the United States, we measured how these factors affect transmission of human betacoronaviruses HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1. We then built a mathematical model to simulate transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through the year 2025. We project that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after an initial pandemic wave. We summarize the full range of plausible transmission scenarios and identify key data still needed to distinguish between them, most importantly longitudinal serological studies to determine the duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Reference37 articles.
1. World Health Organization, “Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)” (Situation Report 35, 2020), (available at https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200224-sitrep-35-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1ac4218d_2).
2. SARS legacy: outbreak reporting is expected and respected;The Lancet,2013
3. Transcript for the CDC Telebriefing Update on COVID-19 (2020; https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html).
4. The antigenic evolution of influenza: drift or thrift?
5. Complete Genomic Sequence of Human Coronavirus OC43: Molecular Clock Analysis Suggests a Relatively Recent Zoonotic Coronavirus Transmission Event
Cited by
116 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献