MerMADE: Coupled biophysical, eco-evolutionary modelling for predicting population dynamics, movement and dispersal evolution in the marine environment

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn order to understand patterns in species’ distributions, we need to understand the underlying mechanisms of dispersal, demography and evolutionary capability of these species. In the marine environment, few models combine these three key components likely due both to the computational challenges involved and the inherent challenges in data collection for parameterisation. To fill this gap, we have developed MerMADE, an individual-based, spatially explicit, eco-evolutionary coupled biophysical model for predicting population dynamics, dispersal and movement evolution in the marine environment (or aquatic environments in general). MerMADE combines dispersal in a 3D, hydrodynamically informed environment with population dynamics, demography and evolutionary functionality in order to investigate questions of connectivity, population persistence and evolution under environmental change and anthropogenic pressure. We illustrate its range of behavioural and physiological functionality using the lesser sandeel,Ammodytes marinus, as a case-study species in an invasion scenario. MerMADE’s flexibility in species-specific parameterisation makes it a widely applicable, exciting tool in future sustainable management and conservation of aquatic species under environmental change.