Impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics

Abstract

ABSTRACTFull-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, which began on February 24, 2022, caused an unprecedented number of refugees, which in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic could increase the number of patients. The recent pandemic dynamics in Ukraine, Poland, Germany and in the whole world was compared with the previous epidemic waves simulated with the use of the generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure. Since before the war the estimation of the number of infectious persons per capita in Ukraine 3.6 times exceeded the global figure, the increase of the number the new cases and the pandemic duration is expected. From the beginning of March 2022 the increase of the averaged number of new cases in Germany and worldwide is visible.