Pharmaceutical and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for Controlling the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

AbstractDisease spread can be affected by pharmaceutical (such as vaccination) and non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as physical distancing, mask-wearing, and contact tracing). Understanding the relationship between disease dynamics and human behavior is a significant factor to controlling infections. In this work, we propose a compartmental epidemiological model for studying how the infection dynamics of COVID-19 evolves for people with different levels of social distancing, natural immunity, and vaccine-induced immunity. Our model recreates the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Ontario up to December 2021. Our results indicate that people change their behaviour based on the disease dynamics and mitigation measures. Specifically, they adapt more protective behaviour when the number of infections is high and social distancing measures are in effect, and they recommence their activities when vaccination coverage is high and relaxation measures are introduced. We demonstrate that waning of infection and vaccine-induced immunity are important for reproducing disease transmission in Fall 2021.