Estimates of regional infectivity of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom following imposition of social distancing measures

Abstract

AbstractWe describe regional variation in the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 infections observed using publicly reported data in the UK, with a view to understanding both if there are clear hot spots in viral spread in the country, or other spatial patterns. Based on case data up to the 9th April, we estimate that the viral replication number remains above 1 overall in the UK but that its trend is to decrease. This suggests the peak of the first wave of COVID-19 patients is imminent. We find that there is significant regional variation in the UK and that this is changing over time. Within England currently the reproductive ratio is lowest in the Midlands (1.11 95% CI 1.07; 1.14), and highest in the North East of England (1.38 95% CI 1.33-1.42). There are long and variable time delays between infection and detection of cases, and thus it remains unclear whether the reduction in the reproductive number is a result of social distancing measures. If we are to prevent further outbreaks, it is critical that we both reduce the time taken for detection and improve our ability to predict the regional spread of outbreaks.