The remarkable ups and downs of birth rate in Switzerland 2020 to 2023 in a historical context

Abstract

AbstractWe follow population trends in the monthly birth rate in Switzerland almost up to the present and place the latest developments in a historical context. Birth rates in 2022 were the lowest since the 1870s, and the trend is continuing in 2023. The latest decline had already begun 1-2 years before Covid-19. Previous pandemics (1890, 1918, 1920, 1957) had led to a temporary decline in births ∽9 months after the epidemic peaks. With Covid-19, this appears more complex. During and shortly after the first two waves and shutdowns in 2020, there were more conceptions and thus excess birth rates in 2021, in all available subgroups except Italian-speaking Switzerland, and somewhat more pronounced among >30-year-old mothers and second parities. Possible reasons for the mini-boom include: The increased time at home during the shutdowns has – planned or not – led to more conceptions which has brought pregnancies forward; the corona virus was still circulat-ing too infrequently in this 1st phase of the pandemic to have a negative impact on pregnancies or fertility; at the end of the waves and shutdowns, the perceived end of the pandemic threat could have led to an optimistic mood and thus also more conceptions. The subsequent decline from January 2022 was stronger than the in-crease before. The first part of the decline in 2022 is most likely due to a negative rebound from the advance-ment of births in 2020/2021 and deliberately postponed pregnancies due to the start of the vaccination pro-gram. The second part of the decline in 2022 is associated with conceptions during the large Omicron wave in the winter of 2021/2022, when many people in Switzerland fell ill. In addition, prices have been rising and real wages falling since 2021, the global political situation has become more unstable, and a general change in values regarding the willingness to have children may also be underway. Following these observations at population level (with limited depth of variables), more in-depth studies must now follow to better under-stand the dynamic ups and downs in the birth rate in Switzerland in recent years.