Published benefits of ivermectin use in Itajaí, Brazil for COVID-19 infection, hospitalisation, and mortality are entirely explained by statistical artefacts

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundTwo recent publications by Kerr et al. (Cureus 14(1):e21272; Cureus 14(8): e28624) reported dramatic effects of prophylactic ivermectin use for both prevention of COVID-19 and reduction of COVID-19-related hospitalisation and mortality, including a dose-dependent effect of ivermectin prophylaxis. These papers have gained an unusually large public influence: they were incorporated into debates around COVID-19 policies and may have contributed to decreased trust in vaccine efficacy and public health authorities more broadly. Both studies were based on retrospective observational analysis of city-wide registry data from the city of Itajaí, Brazil from July-December 2020.MethodsStarting with initially identified sources of error, we conducted a revised statistical analysis of available data, including data made available with the original papers and public data from the Brazil Ministry of Health. We identified additional uncorrected sources of bias and errors from the original analysis, including incorrect subject exclusion and missing subjects, analysis of longitudinal data with cross-sectional design, an enrolment time bias, and multiple sources of immortal time bias. In models assuming no actual effect from ivermectin use, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the contribution of these biases to any observed effect.ResultsUntreated statistical artefacts and methodological errors alone lead to dramatic apparent risk reduction associated with ivermectin use in both studies. The magnitude of apparent risk reduction from these artefacts is comparable to the results reported by the studies themselves, including apparent protection from infection, hospitalisation, and death, and including the reported apparent dose-response relationship.ConclusionsThe inference of ivermectin effect reported in both papers is unsupported, as the observed effects are entirely explained by untreated statistical artefacts and methodological errors. Our re-analysis calls for caution in interpreting highly publicised observational studies and highlights the importance of common sources of bias in clinical research.