Association between visit-to-visit lipid variability and incident cancer: a population-based cohort study

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundDyslipidaemia is associated with increased cancer risk. However, the prognostic value of visit-to-visit lipid variability (VVLV) is unexplored in this regard.ObjectiveTo investigate the associations between VVLV and the risk of incident cancer.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingFamily medicine clinics.PatientsAdults attending a family medicine clinic in Hong Kong during 2000-2003, excluding those with <3 tests for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides, and total cholesterol (TC) each, those with prior cancer diagnosis, and those with <1 year of follow-up.MeasurementsVisit-to-visit LDL-C, HDL-C, TC, and triglycerides variabilities were measured by the coefficient of variation (CV). Patients were followed up until 31st December 2019 for the primary outcome of incident cancer.ResultsAltogether, 69,186 patients were included (26,679 males (38.6%); mean age 60±13 years; mean follow-up 16±3 years); 7958 patients (11.5%) had incident cancer. Higher variability of LDL-C, HDL-C, TC, and TG was associated with higher risk of incident cancer. Patients in the third tercile of the CV of LDL-C (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) against first tercile 1.06 [1.00, 1.12], p=0.049), HDL-C (aHR 1.37 [1.29, 1.44], p<0.001), TC (aHR 1.10 [1.04, 1.17], p=0.001), and TG (aHR 1.11 [1.06, 1.18], p<0.001) had the highest risks of incident cancer. Among these, only HDL-C variability remained associated with the risk of incident cancer in users of statins/fibrates.LimitationsDue to the observational nature of this study, there may be residual and unmeasured confounders. Patient data could not be individually adjudicated, implying that coding errors may be possible.ConclusionHigher VVLV was associated with significantly higher long-term risks of incident cancer. VVLV may be a clinically useful tool for cancer risk stratification.