Diagnostic Accuracy of Hospital Antibiograms in Predicting the Risk of Antimicrobial Resistance in Enterobacteriaceae Isolates: A Nationwide Multicenter Evaluation at the Veterans Health Administration

Abstract

Abstract Background Many clinical guidelines recommend that clinicians use antibiograms to inform empiric antimicrobial therapy. However, hospital antibiograms are typically generated by crude aggregation of microbiologic data, and little is known about an antibiogram's reliability in predicting antimicrobial resistance (AMR) risk at the patient-level. We aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of antibiograms as a tool for selecting empiric therapy for Escherichia coli and Klebsiella spp. for individual patients. Methods We retrospectively generated hospital antibiograms for the nationwide Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities from 2000 to 2019 using all clinical culture specimens positive for E. coli and Klebsiella spp., then assessed the diagnostic accuracy of an antibiogram to predict resistance for isolates in the following calendar year using logistic regression models and predefined 5-step interpretation thresholds. Results Among 127 VHA facilities, 1 484 038 isolates from 704 779 patients for E. coli and 671 035 isolates from 340 504 patients for Klebsiella spp. were available for analysis. For E. coli and Klebsiella spp., the discrimination abilities of hospital-level antibiograms in predicting individual patient AMR were mostly poor, with the areas under the receiver operating curve at 0.686 and 0.715 for ceftriaxone, 0.637 and 0.675 for fluoroquinolones, and 0.576 and 0.624 for trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the antibiogram varied widely by antimicrobial groups and interpretation thresholds with substantial trade-offs. Conclusions Conventional hospital antibiograms for E. coli and Klebsiella spp. have limited performance in predicting AMR for individual patients, and their utility in guiding empiric therapy may be low.