Identifying the number of unreported cases in SIR epidemic models-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Identifying the number of unreported cases in SIR epidemic models

Published:2019-07-04 Issue:2 Volume:37 Page:243-261
ISSN:1477-8599
Container-title:Mathematical Medicine and Biology: A Journal of the IMA
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Ducrot A¹,Magal P²,Nguyen T²,Webb G F³

Affiliation:

1. Normandie University, UNIHAVRE, LMAH, FR-CNRS-3335, ISCN, Le Havre, France

2. University of Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, IMB, UMR, Talence, France

3. Mathematics Department, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA

Abstract

Abstract An SIR epidemic model is analysed with respect to the identification of its parameters and initial values, based upon reported case data from public health sources. The objective of the analysis is to understand the relationship of unreported cases to reported cases. In many epidemic diseases the reported cases are a small fraction of the unreported cases. This fraction can be estimated by the identification of parameters for the model from reported case data. The analysis is applied to the Hong Kong seasonal influenza epidemic in New York City in 1968–1969.

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Applied Mathematics,Pharmacology,General Environmental Science,General Immunology and Microbiology,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,Modeling and Simulation,General Medicine,General Neuroscience

Link

http://academic.oup.com/imammb/article-pdf/37/2/243/33321520/dqz013.pdf

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