Fully automated CT imaging biomarkers for opportunistic prediction of future hip fractures

Abstract

Abstract Objective Assess automated CT imaging biomarkers in patients who went on to hip fracture, compared with controls. Methods In this retrospective case-control study, 6926 total patients underwent initial abdominal CT over a 20-year interval at one institution. A total of 1308 patients (mean age at initial CT, 70.5 ± 12.0 years; 64.4% female) went on to hip fracture (mean time to fracture, 5.2 years); 5618 were controls (mean age 70.3 ± 12.0 years; 61.2% female; mean follow-up interval 7.6 years). Validated fully automated quantitative CT algorithms for trabecular bone attenuation (at L1), skeletal muscle attenuation (at L3), and subcutaneous adipose tissue area (SAT) (at L3) were applied to all scans. Hazard ratios (HRs) comparing highest to lowest risk quartiles and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis including area under the curve (AUC) were derived. Results Hip fracture HRs (95% CI) were 3.18 (2.69-3.76) for low trabecular bone HU, 1.50 (1.28-1.75) for low muscle HU, and 2.18 (1.86-2.56) for low SAT. 10-year ROC AUC values for predicting hip fracture were 0.702, 0.603, and 0.603 for these CT-based biomarkers, respectively. Multivariate combinations of these biomarkers further improved predictive value; the 10-year ROC AUC combining bone/muscle/SAT was 0.733, while combining muscle/SAT was 0.686. Conclusion Opportunistic use of automated CT bone, muscle, and fat measures can identify patients at higher risk for future hip fracture, regardless of the indication for CT imaging. Advances in knowledge CT data can be leveraged opportunistically for further patient evaluation, with early intervention as needed. These novel AI tools analyse CT data to determine a patient’s future hip fracture risk.