A Bayesian survival treed hazards model using latent Gaussian processes

Abstract

Abstract Survival models are used to analyze time-to-event data in a variety of disciplines. Proportional hazard models provide interpretable parameter estimates, but proportional hazard assumptions are not always appropriate. Non-parametric models are more flexible but often lack a clear inferential framework. We propose a Bayesian treed hazards partition model that is both flexible and inferential. Inference is obtained through the posterior tree structure and flexibility is preserved by modeling the log-hazard function in each partition using a latent Gaussian process. An efficient reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is accomplished by marginalizing the parameters in each partition element via a Laplace approximation. Consistency properties for the estimator are established. The method can be used to help determine subgroups as well as prognostic and/or predictive biomarkers in time-to-event data. The method is compared with some existing methods on simulated data and a liver cirrhosis dataset.