Agenda Constrained Legislator Ideal Points and the Spatial Voting Model

Author:

Clinton Joshua D.,Meirowitz Adam

Abstract

Existing preference estimation procedures do not incorporate the full structure of the spatial model of voting, as they fail to use the sequential nature of the agenda. In the maximum likelihood framework, the consequences of this omission may be far-reaching. First, information useful for the identification of the model is neglected. Specifically, information that identifies the proposal locations is ignored. Second, the dimensionality of the policy space may be incorrectly estimated. Third, preference and proposal location estimates are incorrect and difficult to interpret in terms of the spatial model. We also show that the Bayesian simulation approach to ideal point estimation (Clinton et al. 2000; Jackman 2000) may be improved through the use of information about the legislative agenda. This point is illustrated by comparing several preference estimators of the first U.S. House (1789–1791).

Publisher

Cambridge University Press (CUP)

Subject

Political Science and International Relations,Sociology and Political Science

Reference32 articles.

1. For example, Miller (1993) rationalizes the use of a unidimensional model of legislative and presidential interaction with the fact that NOMINATE recovers a unidimensional policy space.

2. Estimation and Inference Are Missing Data Problems: Unifying Social Science Statistics via Bayesian Simulation

3. Maximum Likelihood Estimates in Exponential Response Models

4. We would like to establish that Lc (d, h) > Lu (d, h) and, thus, be confident that Ehdc (h; α) » E h du (h; α) for all α levels. Proof of this claim requires analysis of the convexity properties of the likelihood function and offers little intuition. Instead, we worry only about sufficiently high α's so that the recovered dimensionalities dc (h; α) and du (h; α) are those for which nearly perfect voting yields the recovered data set. Thus, the result should be interpreted as stating that the unconstrained estimate yields an underestimate of the dimensionality of the policy space if one is sufficiently concerned about not finding the dimensionality of the policy space smaller than it really is. Since α and β are inversely related, we formulate the analysis for sufficiently high α so as to pertain to the case of sufficiently low β (type II error).

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