Journey to kidney transplantation: patient dynamics, suspensions, transplantation and deaths in the Australian kidney transplant waitlist

Abstract

ABSTRACT Background People on the kidney waitlist are less informed about potential suspensions. Disparities may exist among those who are suspended and who return to the waitlist. We evaluated the patient journey after entering the waitlist, including suspensions and outcomes, and factors associated with these transitions. Methods We included all incident patients waitlisted for their first transplant from deceased donors in Australia from 2006 to 2019. We described all clinical transitions after entering the waitlist. We predicted the restricted mean survival time (unadjusted and adjusted) until first transplant by the number of prior suspensions. We evaluated factors associated with transitions using flexible survival models and clinical endpoints using Cox models. Results Of 8466 patients waitlisted and followed over 45 757.4 person-years (median 4.8 years), 6741 (80%) were transplanted, 381 (5%) died waiting and 1344 (16%) were still waiting. A total of 3127 (37%) people were suspended at least once. Predicted mean time from waitlist to transplant was 3.0 years [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.8–3.2] when suspended versus 1.9 years (95% CI 1.8–1.9) when never suspended. Prior suspension increased the likelihood of further suspensions 4.2-fold (95% CI 3.8–4.6) and returning to the waitlist by 50% (95% CI 36–65) but decreased the likelihood of transplantation by 29% (95% CI 62–82). Death risk while waiting was increased 12-fold (95% CI 8.0–18.3) when currently suspended. Australian non-Indigenous males were 13% [hazard ratio (HR) 1.13 (95% CI 1.04–1.23)] and Asian males 23% [HR 1.23 (95% CI 1.06–1.42)] more likely to return to the waitlist compared with females of the same ethnicity. Conclusion The waitlist journey was not straightforward. Suspension was common, impacted the chance of transplantation and meant waiting an average of 1 year longer until transplant. We have provided estimates for and factors associated with suspension, relisting and outcomes after waitlisting to support more informed discussions. This evidence is critical to further understand drivers of inequitable access to transplantation.