The heterogeneous response of real estate prices during the Covid-19 pandemic

Author:

Heiniger Sandro12ORCID,Koeniger Winfried13456,Lechner Michael135789

Affiliation:

1. SEW-HSG, University of St.Gallen , St.Gallen , Switzerland

2. UniDistance Suisse , Brig , Switzerland

3. CESifo , Munich , Germany

4. CFS , Frankfurt am Main , Germany

5. IZA , Bonn , Germany

6. Swiss Finance Institute , Zurich , Switzerland

7. CEPR , London , UK

8. IAB , Nürnberg , Germany

9. RWI , Essen , Germany

Abstract

Abstract We estimate the transmission of the pandemic shock in 2020 to the residential and commercial real estate market by causal machine learning, using granular data for Germany. We exploit differences in the incidence of Covid infections and short-time work at the municipal level for the identification of epidemiological and economic effects of the pandemic. We find that (i) a larger incidence of Covid infections temporarily reduced rents for retail real estate; (ii) a larger incidence of short-time work temporarily reduced rents of office real estate; (iii) the pandemic increased prices, particularly in the top price segment of commercial real estate.

Funder

SNSF

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Reference47 articles.

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