High neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio at cancer diagnosis predicts incidence of stroke in cancer patients

Abstract

Abstract Although cancer increases the incidence and severity of ischaemic stroke, there is no reliable method for predicting ischaemic stroke in cancer patients. To evaluate the prognostic capacity of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio at cancer diagnosis for predicting the incidence of ischaemic stroke, we used a hospital-based cancer registry that contained clinical data from all patients treated for cancer at Osaka University Hospital between 2007 and 2015. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was calculated after dividing absolute neutrophil counts by absolute lymphocyte counts. These counts were obtained within 1 month after cancer diagnosis. The primary endpoint was new-onset ischaemic stroke within 2 years after cancer diagnosis. Of the 18 217 included cancer patients (median age: 65.2 years), 69 (0.38%) had ischaemic stroke. Unadjusted Cox regression analysis stratified by cancer site demonstrated that each 1-unit increase in the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was associated with a significant 7.2% increase in the risk of an ischaemic stroke event (95% confidence interval 1.041–1.103, P < 0.001). Survival tree analysis and the Kaplan–Meier method suggested that patients with and without atrial fibrillation who had increased neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios had a higher risk of ischaemic stroke. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for cancer site and stage, revealed that patients with high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios (>15) had higher ischaemic stroke risk than patients with low neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios (<5). This was true among cancer patients both with (hazard ratio 11.598; 95% confidence interval 0.953–141.181) and without (hazard ratio 7.877; 95% confidence interval 2.351–26.389) atrial fibrillation. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio at cancer diagnosis is associated with the incidence of ischaemic stroke among cancer patients and might thus be useful for identifying patients at high risk of ischaemic stroke, allowing us to guide future preventive interventions.