Internal Drivers, External Powers, and Nuclear Test Decisions: The Case of India

Abstract

Abstract This article argues that a combination of internal and international factors explain national nuclear test decisions. Internal factors involve the presence and influence of pro-test and anti-test actors (nuclear scientists, government bureaucrats, and the political leadership) in the inner circle making test decisions. International factors involve external power initiatives, in the form of sanctions and incentives, that seek to restrain states from testing. The article applies this framework to analyze variations in India's nuclear testing propensity from the 1960s to the 2020s. Such a framework explains why India tested nuclear weapons in 1974 and 1998 but not at other times, and adds to scholarship on India's nuclear program. Moreover, by specifically examining nuclear test decisions, rather than a country's overall exploration and pursuit of nuclear weapons, this article contributes to the broader literature on nuclear proliferation.