ProbBreed: a novel tool for calculating the risk of cultivar recommendation in multienvironment trials

Abstract

Abstract Neglecting genotype-by-environment interactions in multienvironment trials (MET) increases the risk of flawed cultivar recommendations for growers. Recent advancements in probability theory coupled with cutting-edge software offer a more streamlined decision-making process for selecting suitable candidates across diverse environments. Here, we present the user-friendly ProbBreed package in R, which allows breeders to calculate the probability of a given genotype outperforming competitors under a Bayesian framework. This article outlines the package’s basic workflow and highlights its key features, ranging from MET model fitting to estimating the per se and pairwise probabilities of superior performance and stability for selection candidates. Remarkably, only the selection intensity is required to compute these probabilities. By democratizing this complex yet efficient methodology, ProbBreed aims to enhance decision-making and ultimately contribute to more accurate cultivar recommendations in breeding programs.