Prediction of multiclass surgical outcomes in glaucoma using multimodal deep learning based on free-text operative notes and structured EHR data

Abstract

Abstract Objective Surgical outcome prediction is challenging but necessary for postoperative management. Current machine learning models utilize pre- and post-op data, excluding intraoperative information in surgical notes. Current models also usually predict binary outcomes even when surgeries have multiple outcomes that require different postoperative management. This study addresses these gaps by incorporating intraoperative information into multimodal models for multiclass glaucoma surgery outcome prediction. Materials and methods We developed and evaluated multimodal deep learning models for multiclass glaucoma trabeculectomy surgery outcomes using both structured EHR data and free-text operative notes. We compare those to baseline models that use structured EHR data exclusively, or neural network models that leverage only operative notes. Results The multimodal neural network had the highest performance with a macro AUROC of 0.750 and F1 score of 0.583. It outperformed the baseline machine learning model with structured EHR data alone (macro AUROC of 0.712 and F1 score of 0.486). Additionally, the multimodal model achieved the highest recall (0.692) for hypotony surgical failure, while the surgical success group had the highest precision (0.884) and F1 score (0.775). Discussion This study shows that operative notes are an important source of predictive information. The multimodal predictive model combining perioperative notes and structured pre- and post-op EHR data outperformed other models. Multiclass surgical outcome prediction can provide valuable insights for clinical decision-making. Conclusions Our results show the potential of deep learning models to enhance clinical decision-making for postoperative management. They can be applied to other specialties to improve surgical outcome predictions.