High-spatial-resolution probability maps of drought duration and magnitude across Spain
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Published:2019-03-21
Issue:3
Volume:19
Page:611-628
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ISSN:1684-9981
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Container-title:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Domínguez-Castro FernandoORCID, Vicente-Serrano Sergio M., Tomás-Burguera Miquel, Peña-Gallardo Marina, Beguería SantiagoORCID, El Kenawy AhmedORCID, Luna YolandaORCID, Morata Ana
Abstract
Abstract. Assessing the probability of occurrence of drought is important for improving
current drought assessment, management and mitigation measures, and strategies
across Spain. This study employed two well-established drought indices, the
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation
Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), to characterize drought duration and
magnitude at different timescales over Spain. In order to map the drought
hazard probability, we applied the extreme value theory and tested different
thresholds to generate peak-over-threshold (POT) drought duration and
magnitude series. Our results demonstrate that the generalized Pareto (GP)
distribution performs well in estimating the frequencies of drought magnitude
and duration. Specifically, we found a good agreement between the observed and
modelled data when using upper percentiles to generate the POT series.
Spatially, our estimations suggest a higher probability of extreme drought
events in southern and central Spain compared to the northern and eastern
regions. Also, our study found spatial differences in drought probability
estimations as a function of the selected drought index (i.e. SPI vs. SPEI)
and timescale (i.e. 1, 3, 6, and 12 months). Drought hazard probability maps
can contribute to the better management of different sectors (e.g. agriculture,
water resources management, urban water supply, and tourism) at national,
regional, and even local scale in Spain.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
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