A multivariate statistical method for susceptibility analysis of debris flow in southwestern China

Abstract

Abstract. Southwestern China is characterized by many steep mountains and deep valleys due to the uplift activity of the Tibetan Plateau. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake left large amounts of loose materials in this area, making it a severe disaster zone in terms of debris flow. Susceptibility is a significant factor of debris flows for evaluating their formation and impact. Therefore, there is an urgent need to analyze the susceptibility to debris flows of this area. To quantitatively predict the susceptibility of the area to debris flows, this study evaluates 70 typical debris flow gullies, which are distributed along the Brahmaputra River, Nujiang River, Yalong River, Dadu River, and Ming River, as statistical samples. Nine indexes are chosen to construct a factor index system and then to evaluate the susceptibility to debris flow. They are the catchment area, longitudinal gradient, average gradient of the slope on both sides of the gully, catchment morphology, valley orientation, loose material reserves, location of the main loose material, antecedent precipitation, and rainfall intensity. Following this, an empirical model based on the Type I quantification theory is established for susceptibility prediction for debris flows in southwestern China. Finally, 10 debris flow gullies upstream of the Dadu River are analyzed to verify the reliability of the proposed model. The results show that the accuracy of the statistical model is 90 %.