Surface networks in the Arctic may miss a future methane bomb

Abstract

Abstract. The Arctic is warming up to 4 times faster than the global average, leading to significant environmental changes. Given the sensitivity of natural methane (CH4) sources to environmental conditions, increasing Arctic temperatures are expected to lead to higher CH4 emissions, particularly due to permafrost thaw and the exposure of organic matter. Some estimates therefore assume the existence of an Arctic methane bomb, where vast CH4 quantities are suddenly and rapidly released over several years. This study examines the ability of the in situ observation network to detect such events in the Arctic, a generally poorly constrained region. Using the FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle) atmospheric transport model and varying CH4 emission scenarios, we found that areas with a dense observation network could detect a methane bomb occurring within 2 to 10 years. In contrast, regions with sparse coverage would need 10 to 30 years, with potential false positives in other areas.