Development of an integrated model framework for multi-air-pollutant exposure assessments in high-density cities

Abstract

Abstract. Exposure models for some criteria of air pollutants have been intensively developed in past research; multi-air-pollutant exposure models, especially for particulate chemical species, have been however overlooked in Asia. Lack of an integrated model framework to calculate multi-air-pollutant exposure has hindered the combined exposure assessment and the corresponding health assessment. This work applied the land-use regression (LUR) approach to develop an integrated model framework to estimate 2017 annual-average exposure of multiple air pollutants in a typical high-rise and high-density Asian city (Hong Kong, China) including four criteria of gaseous air pollutants (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter equal to or less than 10 µm (PM10) and 2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3)), as well as four major PM10 chemical species. Our integrated multi-air-pollutant exposure model framework is capable of explaining 91 %–97 % of the variability of measured gaseous air pollutant concentration, with the leave-one-out cross-validation R2 values ranging from 0.73 to 0.93. Using the model framework, the spatial distribution of the concentration of various air pollutants at a spatial resolution of 500 m was generated. The LUR model-derived spatial distribution maps revealed weak-to-moderate spatial correlations between the PM10 chemical species and the criteria of air pollutants, which may help to distinguish their independent chronic health effects. In addition, further improvements in the development of air pollution exposure models are discussed. This study proposed an integrated model framework for estimating multi-air-pollutant exposure in high-density and high-rise urban areas, serving an important tool for multi-air-pollutant exposure assessment in epidemiological studies.