Augmentation of WRF-Hydro to simulate overland-flow- and streamflow-generated debris flow susceptibility in burn scars
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Published:2022-07-27
Issue:7
Volume:22
Page:2317-2345
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ISSN:1684-9981
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Container-title:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Li ChuxuanORCID, Handwerger Alexander L.ORCID, Wang Jiali, Yu Wei, Li Xiang, Finnegan Noah J.ORCID, Xie Yingying, Buscarnera Giuseppe, Horton Daniel E.ORCID
Abstract
Abstract. In steep wildfire-burned terrains, intense rainfall can produce large runoff that can trigger highly destructive debris flows. However, the ability
to accurately characterize and forecast debris flow susceptibility in burned terrains using physics-based tools remains limited. Here, we augment
the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) to simulate both overland and channelized flows and assess postfire
debris flow susceptibility over a regional domain. We perform hindcast simulations using high-resolution weather-radar-derived precipitation and
reanalysis data to drive non-burned baseline and burn scar sensitivity experiments. Our simulations focus on January 2021 when an atmospheric river
triggered numerous debris flows within a wildfire burn scar in Big Sur – one of which destroyed California's famous Highway 1. Compared to the
baseline, our burn scar simulation yields dramatic increases in total and peak discharge and shorter lags between rainfall onset and peak
discharge, consistent with streamflow observations at nearby US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gage sites. For the 404 catchments located in
the simulated burn scar area, median catchment-area-normalized peak discharge increases by ∼ 450 % compared to the baseline. Catchments
with anomalously high catchment-area-normalized peak discharge correspond well with post-event field-based and remotely sensed debris flow
observations. We suggest that our regional postfire debris flow susceptibility analysis demonstrates WRF-Hydro as a compelling new physics-based
tool whose utility could be further extended via coupling to sediment erosion and transport models and/or ensemble-based operational weather
forecasts. Given the high-fidelity performance of our augmented version of WRF-Hydro, as well as its potential usage in probabilistic hazard
forecasts, we argue for its continued development and application in postfire hydrologic and natural hazard assessments.
Funder
National Science Foundation
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
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