Large simulated future changes in the nitrate radical under the CMIP6 SSP scenarios: implications for oxidation chemistry

Abstract

Abstract. The nitrate radical (NO3) plays an important role in the chemistry of the lower troposphere, acting as the principle oxidant during the night together with ozone. Previous model simulations suggest that the levels of NO3 have increased dramatically since the preindustrial period. Here, we show projections of the evolution of the NO3 radical from 1850–2100 using the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM1) under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our model results highlight diverse trajectories for NO3, with some scenarios and regions undergoing rapid growth of NO3 to unprecedented levels over the course of the 21st century and others seeing sharp declines. The local increases in NO3 (up to 40 ppt above the preindustrial base line) are driven not only by local changes in emissions of nitrogen oxides but have an important climate component, with NO3 being favoured in warmer future climates. The changes in NO3 lead to changes in the oxidation of important secondary organic aerosol precursors, with potential impacts on particulate matter pollution regionally and globally. This work highlights the potential for substantial future growth in NO3 and the need to better understand the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from NO3 to accurately predict future air quality and climate implications.