Abstract
Abstract. We analyse some of the challenges in quantifying
uncertainty when using geohazard models. Despite the availability of
recently developed, sophisticated ways to parameterise models, a major
remaining challenge is constraining the many model parameters involved.
Additionally, there are challenges related to the credibility of predictions
required in the assessments, the uncertainty of input quantities, and the
conditional nature of the quantification, making it dependent on the choices
and assumptions analysts make. Addressing these challenges calls for more
insightful approaches yet to be developed. However, as discussed in this
paper, clarifications and reinterpretations of some fundamental concepts and
practical simplifications may be required first. The research thus aims to
strengthen the foundation and practice of geohazard risk assessments.
Cited by
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