The Lagrangian Atmospheric Radionuclide Transport Model (ARTM) – sensitivity studies and evaluation using airborne measurements of power plant emissions

Abstract

Abstract. The Atmospheric Radionuclide Transport Model (ARTM) operates at the meso-γ scale and simulates the dispersion of radionuclides originating from nuclear facilities under routine operation within the planetary boundary layer. This study presents the extension and validation of this Lagrangian particle dispersion model and consists of three parts: (i) a sensitivity study that aims to assess the impact of key input parameters on the simulation results, (ii) the evaluation of the mixing properties of five different turbulence models using the well-mixed criterion, and (iii) a comparison of model results to airborne observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from a power plant and the evaluation of related uncertainties. In the sensitivity study, we analyse the effects of the stability class, roughness length, zero-plane displacement factor, and source height on the three-dimensional plume extent as well as the distance between the source and maximum concentration at the ground. The results show that the stability class is the most sensitive input parameter as expected. The five turbulence models are the default turbulence models of ARTM 2.8.0 and ARTM 3.0.0, one alternative built-in turbulence model of ARTM, and two further turbulence models implemented for this study. The well-mixed condition tests showed that all five turbulence models are able to preserve an initially well-mixed atmospheric boundary layer reasonably well. The models deviate only 6 % from the expected uniform concentration below 80 % of the mixing layer height, except for the default turbulence model of ARTM 3.0.0 with deviations of up to 18 %. CO2 observations along a flight path in the vicinity of the lignite power plant Bełchatów, Poland, measured by the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Cessna aircraft during the Carbon Dioxide and Methane Mission (CoMet) campaign in 2018 allowed for evaluation of model performance for the different turbulence models under unstable boundary layer conditions. All simulated mixing ratios are of the same order of magnitude as the airborne in situ data. An extensive uncertainty analysis using probability distribution functions, statistical tests, and direct spatio-temporal comparisons of measurements and model results help to quantify the model uncertainties. With the default turbulence setups of ARTM versions 2.8.0 and 3.0.0, the plume widths are underestimated by up to 50 %, resulting in a strong overestimation of the maximum plume CO2 mixing ratios. The comparison of the three alternative turbulence models shows good agreement of the peak plume CO2 concentrations, the CO2 distribution within the plumes, and the plume width, with a 30 % deviation in the peak CO2 concentration and a less than 25 % deviation in the measured CO2 plume width. Uncertainties in the simulations may arise from the different spatial and temporal resolutions of simulations and measurements in addition to the turbulence parametrisation and boundary conditions. The results of this work may help to improve the accurate representation of real plumes in very unstable atmospheric conditions through the selection of distinct turbulence models. Further comparisons at different stability regimes are required for a final assessment of model uncertainties.