Emission trends of air pollutants and CO2 in China from 2005 to 2021

Abstract

Abstract. China is facing the challenge of synergistic reduction of air pollutants and CO2 emissions. However, the studies on its historical progress and future priorities are insufficient. This study compiled China's emission inventory of air pollutants and CO2 from 2005 to 2021 (ABaCAS-EI v2.0 dataset) based on a unified emission-source framework by considering the influences of activity level, technology evolution, and emission control policies. The characteristics of air pollutants and CO2 emissions were comprehensively analyzed from multiple dimensions such as time, space, sector, and synergies between air pollutants and CO2 emissions. Mitigation policies have decoupled the emissions of air pollutants and CO2 with economic development in China since 2013. In the context of growing activity levels, energy structure adjustment and energy and material saving reduced the average annual increase rate of CO2 emissions by 7 % after 2011. Based on this, end-of-pipe control contributed 51 %–98 % of air pollutant emission reductions after 2013. Industrial boilers and residential fossil fuel combustion sectors in seven provinces (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Jilin, Henan, Sichuan, and Qinghai) achieved emission reductions in both air pollutants and CO2 during 2013–2021. The declining trends in both the sectoral and regional emission ratios of air pollutants to CO2 indicated that the potential for synergistic emission reduction in China declined from 2013 to 2021. The emission ratios in 2021 showed that residential fossil fuel combustion, iron and steel industry, and transportation exhibited relatively higher co-benefits of SO2, PM2.5, NOx, and VOC emission reductions when CO2 emissions were reduced. Most cities with a higher potential to synergistically reduce NOx, VOC, and CO2 emissions were within the Yangtze River Economic Belt, while those with a higher potential to co-control SO2 and CO2, and PM2.5 and CO2 were in southern and northeast China, respectively. Further deconstruction of the sectoral emissions in 2021 suggested future reduction measures: for example, controlling coal consumption in the energy field; promoting innovative technologies with low air pollutant emission intensities and coal-saving measures in the iron and steel industry; combining coal and carbonate replacement technologies with separated particle control measures in the cement industry; and controlling light-duty passenger vehicles, heavy-duty trucks, agricultural machinery, and inland water transport in the transportation sector. Our dataset and findings provide insights into the co-control of air pollutants and CO2 emissions in the future in China and other countries with the same demand. Our ABaCAS-EI v2.0 dataset can be accessed from https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.21777005.v1 (S. Li et al., 2022) by species, sector, and province.