Probable maximum precipitation estimation in a humid climate

Abstract

Abstract. Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimation is one of the most important components for designing hydraulic structures. The aim of this study was the estimation of 24 h PMP (PMP24) using statistical and hydro-meteorological (physical) approaches in the humid climate of the Qareh-Su basin, which is located in the northern part of Iran. Firstly, for the statistical estimate of PMP, the equations of empirical curves of the Hershfield method were extracted and the Hershfield standard and modified methods were written in Java programming language, as a user-friendly and multi-platform application called the PMP Calculator. Secondly, a hydro-meteorological approach, which is called the convergence model, was used to calculate PMP24. The results of both approaches were evaluated based on statistical criteria, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), correlation coefficient (r), and coefficient of determination (R2). The maximum values of PMP24 for the Hershfield standard and modified methods were estimated to be 448 and 201 mm, respectively, while the PMP obtained by the physical approach was 143 mm. Comparison of PMP24 values with the maximum 24 h precipitation demonstrated that based on performance criteria including the MAE, MSE, RMSE, MAPE, r, and R2, the physical approach performed better than the statistical approach and it provided the most reliable estimates for PMP. Also, the accuracy of the Hershfield modified method was better than the standard method using modified Km values, and the standard method gives excessively large PMP for construction costs.