Assimilating realistically simulated wide-swath altimeter observations in a high-resolution shelf-seas forecasting system

Abstract

Abstract. The impact of assimilating simulated wide-swath altimetry observations from the upcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is assessed using observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). These experiments use the Met Office 1.5 km resolution North West European Shelf analysis and forecasting system. In an effort to understand the importance of future work to account for correlated errors in the data assimilation scheme, we simulate SWOT observations with and without realistic correlated errors. These are assimilated in OSSEs along with simulated observations of the standard observing network, also with realistic errors added. It was found that while the assimilation of SWOT observations without correlated errors reduced the RMSE (root mean squared error) in sea surface height (SSH) and surface current speeds by up to 20 %, the inclusion of correlated errors in the observations degraded both the SSH and surface currents, introduced an erroneous increase in the mean surface currents and degraded the subsurface temperature and salinity. While restricting the SWOT data to the inner half of the swath and applying observation averaging with a 5 km radius negated most of the negative impacts, it also severely limited the positive impacts. To realise the full benefits in the prediction of the ocean mesoscale offered by wide-swath altimetry missions, it is crucial that methods to ameliorate the effects of correlated errors in the processing of the SWOT observations and account for the correlated errors in the assimilation are implemented.