Abstract
Abstract. A hydrological ensemble prediction system, integrating a water balance model with ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), is evaluated for two Belgian catchments using verification methods borrowed from meteorology. The skill of the probability forecast that the streamflow exceeds a given level is measured with the Brier Skill Score. Then the value of the system is assessed using a cost-loss decision model. The verification results of the hydrological ensemble predictions are compared with the corresponding results obtained for simpler alternatives as the one obtained by using of the deterministic forecast of ECMWF which is characterized by a higher spatial resolution or by using of the EPS ensemble mean.
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences,General Engineering,General Environmental Science
Reference32 articles.
1. AMINAL – afdeling Water, De Overstromingsvoorspeller van de Demer (in Dutch), edited by: Thomas, P., Brussels, 44 pp., 2004.
2. Atger, F.: The skill of ensemble prediction systems, Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1941–1953, 1999.
3. Bradley, A. A., Hashino, T., and Schwartz, S. S.: Distributions-oriented verification of probability forecasts for small data samples, Wea. Forecast., 18, 903–917, 2003.
4. Bradley, A. A., Schwartz, S. S., and Hashino, T.: Distribution-oriented verification of ensemble streamflow predictions, J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 532–545, 2004.
5. Brier, G. W.: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability, Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1–3, 1950.
Cited by
142 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献