A vital link: water and vegetation in the Anthropocene

Abstract

Abstract. This paper argues that the interplay of water, carbon and vegetation dynamics is fundamental to some global trends in the current and conceivable future Anthropocene. Supported by simulations with a process-based biosphere model and a literature review, it demonstrates that the connectivity of freshwater and vegetation dynamics is vital for water security, food security and (terrestrial) ecosystem integrity alike. The water limitation of net primary production of both natural and agricultural plants – already pronounced in many regions – is shown to increase in many places under projected climate change, though this development is partially offset by water-saving direct CO2 effects. Natural vegetation can to some degree adapt dynamically to higher water limitation, but agricultural crops require some form of active management to overcome it – among them irrigation, soil conservation and expansion into still uncultivated areas. While crucial to secure food production for a growing world population, such human interventions in water–vegetation systems have, as also shown, repercussions to the water cycle. Indeed, land use changes have been shown to be the second-most important influence on the terrestrial water balance in recent times. Furthermore, climate change regionally increases irrigation demand and decreases freshwater availability, impeding on rainfed and irrigated food production (if not CO2 effects counterbalance this impact – which is unlikely at least in poorly managed systems). Drawing from these exemplary investigations, some research perspectives on how to further improve our quantitative knowledge of human-water-vegetation interactions in the Anthropocene are outlined.