Multitimescale variations in modeled stratospheric water vapor derived from three modern reanalysis products
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Published:2019-05-16
Issue:9
Volume:19
Page:6509-6534
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ISSN:1680-7324
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Container-title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Atmos. Chem. Phys.
Author:
Tao MengchuORCID, Konopka Paul, Ploeger Felix, Yan Xiaolu, Wright Jonathon S.ORCID, Diallo MohamadouORCID, Fueglistaler Stephan, Riese MartinORCID
Abstract
Abstract. Stratospheric water vapor (SWV) plays important roles in the radiation budget
and ozone chemistry and is a valuable tracer for understanding stratospheric
transport. Meteorological reanalyses provide variables necessary for
simulating this transport; however, even recent reanalyses are subject to
substantial uncertainties, especially in the stratosphere. It is therefore
necessary to evaluate the consistency among SWV distributions simulated using
different input reanalysis products. In this study, we evaluate the
representation of SWV and its variations on multiple timescales using
simulations over the period 1980–2013. Our simulations are based on the
Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) driven by horizontal
winds and diabatic heating rates from three recent reanalyses: ERA-Interim,
JRA-55 and MERRA-2. We present an intercomparison among these model results
and observationally based estimates using a multiple linear regression method
to study the annual cycle (AC), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and
longer-term variability in monthly zonal-mean H2O mixing ratios
forced by variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the
volcanic aerosol burden. We find reasonable consistency among simulations of
the distribution and variability in SWV with respect to the AC and QBO.
However, the amplitudes of both signals are systematically weaker in the
lower and middle stratosphere when CLaMS is driven by MERRA-2 than when it is
driven by ERA-Interim or JRA-55. This difference is primarily attributable to
relatively slow tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere in simulations
based on MERRA-2. Two possible contributors to the slow tropical upwelling in
the lower stratosphere are suggested to be the large long-wave cloud
radiative effect and the unique assimilation process in MERRA-2. The impacts
of ENSO and volcanic aerosol on H2O entry variability are
qualitatively consistent among the three simulations despite differences of
50 %–100 % in the magnitudes. Trends show larger discrepancies among the
three simulations. CLaMS driven by ERA-Interim produces a neutral to slightly
positive trend in H2O entry values over 1980–2013
(+0.01 ppmv decade−1), while both CLaMS driven by JRA-55 and CLaMS
driven by MERRA-2 produce negative trends but with significantly different
magnitudes (−0.22 and −0.08 ppmv decade−1, respectively).
Funder
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft National Natural Science Foundation of China
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Atmospheric Science
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