Statistical assessment of biogenic risk for the human population caused by COVID-19

Abstract

In the paper an appreciable hierarchy of mathematical models is proposed. It describes the actual dynamics of COVID-19 thickness during 02/12/2020 – 09/22/2021. The incidence sub-model reflects reliably regular (aperiodic and periodic), as well as random components. It is established that the dynamics of the epidemy is essentially seasonal thrice a year. Model elaborated enables to clarify and explain weak weekly fluctuations in the death rate dynamics. It turned out that the maximum risk of death is at 15 and 22 days of disease duration. It means that this virus will presumably be a "satellite" of the human population with corresponded mortality at 1.75%. Calculations performed enable to estimate the level of stochastics in disease and death dynamics. It is near to the amplitude of periodic variation. Computer experiments with developed model predict the global dynamics of the incidence of COVID-19. New epidemic data can show the prospect of improving our model to regard the competitiveness between new sporadically emerging virus strains.