Pandemic and sanctions as risk factors for the sustainable development of transport systems

Abstract

This article analyzes approaches to determining external factors affecting the transport industry, as well as the degree of influence of the most significant factors, such as the Covid-19 pandemic and sanctions pressure, on passenger traffic. The development of the transport industry is influenced by various factors, both global and internal. At the same time, it can be noted that there is a correlation between these groups of factors, which makes it possible to weaken the negative pressure of one group of influence factors by strengthening the other group. Based on the application of monographic, economic-mathematical, statistical and expert methods, the indicators characterizing the transport industry are analyzed. The growth rates of indicators are calculated: passenger traffic, passenger capacity, passenger traffic growth index. The influence of external factors (pandemic and sanctions) on passenger transportation was determined using passenger traffic indicators and the passenger traffic growth index. It is concluded that the pandemic and sanctions have significantly affected the dynamics of passenger transportation and the transport industry as a whole. Moreover, the degree of influence of each of these factors is different. Using the example of air transportation, the global and Russian trends of the pandemic's impact on passenger traffic are determined.