Predicting national rice production 2023−2024 under rising food and energy prices and global climate change

Abstract

The history of the food crisis since the 1990s shows that cycles and prolonged spikes in food and energy prices and climate changes have negatively impacted food production. This study aims to predict the impact of rising food and energy prices and global climate change on rice production in 2023 and 2024 at national and provincial levels. The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) analysis data from January 1993 to December 2022 from various national and international sources was used to measure the impact on a national level, and the shift-share analysis (SSA) approach was used for the rice sampling framework analysis to map the impact on provincial levels. Indonesia’s rice production is predicted to decrease by 3.16% and 3.75% in 2023 and 2024 compared to 2022. Analysis by province shows a decrease in almost all major rice-producing regions in Indonesia. This study suggests that the government (1) increase rice productivity in 16 provinces and increase both rice harvest area and productivity in 9 provinces and (2) coordinate with other ministries and institutions at central and regional levels to map regencies that have the opportunity to immediately increase production, ensure and increase the availability of input, infrastructure, facilities, and anticipate pest outbreaks.