Physical Bayesian modelling of the non-linear matter distribution: New insights into the nearby universe

Abstract

Accurate analyses of present and next-generation cosmological galaxy surveys require new ways to handle effects of non-linear gravitational structure formation processes in data. To address these needs we present an extension of our previously developed algorithm for Bayesian Origin Reconstruction from Galaxies (BORG) to analyse matter clustering at non-linear scales in observations. This is achieved by incorporating a numerical particle mesh model of gravitational structure formation into our Bayesian inference framework. The algorithm simultaneously infers the three-dimensional primordial matter fluctuations from which present non-linear observations formed and provides reconstructions of velocity fields and structure formation histories. The physical forward modelling approach automatically accounts for the non-Gaussian features in gravitationally evolved matter density fields and addresses the redshift space distortion problem associated with peculiar motions of observed galaxies. Our algorithm employs a hierarchical Bayes approach to jointly account for various observational effects, such as unknown galaxy biases, selection effects, and observational noise. Corresponding parameters of the data model are marginalized out via a sophisticated Markov chain Monte Carlo approach relying on a combination of a multiple block sampling framework and an efficient implementation of a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler. We demonstrate the performance of the method by applying it to the 2M++ galaxy compilation, tracing the matter distribution of the nearby universe. We show accurate and detailed inferences of the three-dimensional non-linear dark matter distribution of the nearby universe. As exemplified in the case of the Coma cluster, our method provides complementary mass estimates that are compatible with those obtained from weak lensing and X-ray observations. For the first time, we also present a reconstruction of the vorticity of the non-linear velocity field from observations. In summary, our method provides plausible and very detailed inferences of the dark matter and velocity fields of our cosmic neighbourhood.