A multi-objective model for an integrated oil and natural gas supply chain under uncertainty

Abstract

The oil and gas networks are overlapped because of the inclusion of associated gas in crude oil. This necessitates the integration and planning of oil and gas supply chain together. In recent years, hydrocarbon market has experienced high fluctuation in demands and prices which leads to considerable economic disruptions. Therefore, planning of oil and gas supply chain, considering market uncertainty is a significant area of research. In this regard, this study develops a multi-objective stochastic optimization model for tactical planning of downstream segment of oil and natural gas supply chain under uncertainty of price and demand of petroleum products. The proposed model was formulated based on a two-stage stochastic programming approach with a finite number of realizations. The proposed model helps to assess various trade-offs among the selected goals and guides decision maker(s) to effectively manage oil and natural gas supply chain. The applicability and the utility of the proposed model has been demonstrated using the case of Saudi Arabia oil and gas supply chain. The model is solved using the improved augmented ε-constraint algorithm. The impact of uncertainty of price and demand of petroleum products on the obtained results was investigated. The Value of Stochastic Solution (VSS) for total cost, total revenue, and service level reached a maximum of 12.6%, 0.4%, and 6.2% of wait-and see solutions, respectively. Therefore, the Value of the Stochastic Solution proved the importance of using stochastic programming approach over deterministic approach. In addition, the obtained results indicate that uncertainty in demand has higher impact on the oil and gas supply chain performance than the price.