Finite volume coastal ocean model for water-level fluctuation due to climate change in Aguelmam Sidi Ali Lake (Middle Atlas, Morocco)

Abstract

Climate changes are the main motivation for alteration of ecosystems; in fact the effects of these changes on biodiversity and ecosystems are considered as the most challenging cases in present century. Therefore, since the lakes are the most important services and functions of ecosystems, the effect of climate change on water level fluctuations of Aguelmam Sidi Ali Lake (Morocco) was analyzed as a natural ecosystem in this essay. The regular observations from the lake have found that a very sensitive withdrawal of their water level during the dry years. Therefore, a hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate the condition of Aguelmam Sidi Ali Lake, with observed field data (model has been set up to run annually for a total 35 year data, i.e., precipitation, evaporation, runoff discharges and water-level which are available for the last 35 years) being used for model calibration and validation. Additionally, the model validation process showed that the model results fit the observed data fairly well (R2 = 0.70−0.74, root mean square error [RMSE] = 1.63−1.71 m). On the other hand, different hydrological conditions regarding lake input and output data were tested and water depth was calculated using bathymetry to predict water-level fluctuations in the future. The results predict that the water-level will decrease continuously (In 2044, the water level will reach to 6.20 m). The water level decrease due to the climate change in both scenarios (dry and very dry) is dramatic and a profound adverse impact on the environmental balance is predicted in the region. Additionally, the lake will be dried up in about 20 years if very dry conditions continue in the region. This reveals the importance of this type of approach for obtaining a first-order estimate of water-level variations in Sidi Ali Lake, affected by climate change.