Chaotic Characteristics Identification on Terminal Departing Passenger Traffic Time Series

Abstract

On the basis of actual survey of departing passengers to reach terminal, chaotic time series prediction theory was adopted for data analysis in this paper. In order to find out the self-similarity of time series, this paper divided passenger traffic into two kinds: holiday traffic and non-holiday traffic by changing interval scale. The optimal delay time and the best embedding dimension had been calculated by using time series phase space reconstruction method. To confirm whether the time series have chaotic characteristics or not, it took the largest Lyapunov exponent as determining criterion.Then the optimal time intervals of passenger traffic time series with chaotic character were determined. The study provides a theoretical basis for the application of chaos theory in passenger traffic forecast.