Fractional-order mathematical model for analysing impact of quarantine on transmission of COVID-19 in India

Abstract

An outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease was first reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. In India, the first case was reported on January 30, 2020 on a person with a travel history to an affected country. Considering the fact of a heavily populated and diversified country like India, we have proposed a novel fractional-order mathematical model to elicit the transmission dynamics of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the control strategy for India. The classical SEIR model is employed in three compartments, namely: quarantined immigrated population, non-quarantined asymptomatic immigrated population, and local population subjected to lockdown in the containment areas by the government of India to prevent the spread of disease in India. We have also taken into account the physical interactions between them to evaluate the coronavirus transmission dynamics. The basic reproduction number ($R_{0}$) has been derived to determine the communicability of the disease. Numerical simulation is done by using the generalised Euler method. To check the feasibility of our analysis, we have investigated some numerical simulations for various fractional orders by varying values of the parameters with help of MATLAB to fit the realistic pandemic scenario.