Using machine learning to predict 30-day readmission and reoperation following resection of supratentorial high-grade gliomas: an ACS NSQIP study involving 9418 patients

Abstract

OBJECTIVE High-grade gliomas (HGGs) are among the rarest yet most aggressive tumor types in neurosurgical practice. In the current literature, few studies have assessed the drivers of early outcomes following resection of these tumors and investigated their association with quality of care. The authors aimed to identify the clinical predictors for 30-day readmission and reoperation following HGG surgery using the American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Project (NSQIP) database and sought to create web-based applications predicting each outcome. METHODS Using the ACS NSQIP database, the authors conducted a retrospective, multicenter cohort analysis of patients who underwent resection of supratentorial HGGs between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2020. Demographics and comorbidities were extracted. The primary outcomes were 30-day unplanned readmission and reoperation. A stratified 80:20 split of the available data was carried out. Supervised machine learning algorithms were trained to predict 30-day outcomes. RESULTS A total of 9418 patients were included in our cohort. The observed rate of unplanned readmission within 30 days of surgery was 13.0% (n = 1221). In terms of predictors, weight, chronic steroid use, preoperative blood urea nitrogen level, and white blood cell count were associated with a higher risk of readmission. The observed rate of unplanned reoperation within 30 days of surgery was 5.2% (n = 489). In terms of predictors, increased weight, longer operative time, and more days between hospital admission and operation were associated with an increased risk of early reoperation. The random forest algorithm showed the highest predictive performance for early readmission (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.967), while the XGBoost algorithm showed the highest predictive performance for early reoperation (AUC = 0.985). Web-based tools for both outcomes were deployed (https://glioma-readmission.herokuapp.com/ and https://glioma-reoperation.herokuapp.com/). CONCLUSIONS In this study, the authors provide the first nationwide analysis for short-term outcomes in patients undergoing resection of supratentorial HGGs. Multiple patient, hospital, and admission factors were associated with readmission and reoperation, confirmed by machine learning predicting patients’ prognosis, leading to better planning preoperatively and subsequently improved personalized patient care.