Searching for HIV and AIDS Health Information in South Africa, 2004-2019: Analysis of Google and Wikipedia Search Trends (Preprint)

Abstract

AIDS, caused by HIV, is a leading cause of mortality in Africa. HIV/AIDS is among the greatest public health challenges confronting health authorities, with South Africa having the greatest prevalence of the disease in the world. There is little research into how Africans meet their health information needs on HIV/AIDS online, and this research gap impacts programming and educational responses to the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

This paper reports on how, in general, interest in the search terms “HIV” and “AIDS” mirrors the increase in people living with HIV and the decline in AIDS cases in South Africa.

Data on search trends for HIV and AIDS for South Africa were found using the search terms “HIV” and “AIDS” (categories: health, web search) on Google Trends. This was compared with data on estimated adults and children living with HIV, and AIDS-related deaths in South Africa, from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, and also with search interest in the topics “HIV” and “AIDS” on Wikipedia Afrikaans, the most developed local language Wikipedia service in South Africa. Nonparametric statistical tests were conducted to support the trends and associations identified in the data.

Google Trends shows a statistically significant decline (<i>P</i>&lt;.001) in search interest for AIDS relative to HIV in South Africa. This trend mirrors progress on the ground in South Africa and is significantly associated (<i>P</i>&lt;.001) with a decline in AIDS-related deaths and people living longer with HIV. This trend was also replicated on Wikipedia Afrikaans, where there was a greater interest in HIV than AIDS.

This statistically significant (<i>P</i>&lt;.001) association between interest in the search terms “HIV” and “AIDS” in South Africa (2004-2019) and the number of people living with HIV and AIDS in the country (2004-2019) might be an indicator that multilateral efforts at combating HIV/AIDS—particularly through awareness raising and behavioral interventions in South Africa—are bearing fruit, and this is not only evident on the ground, but is also reflected in the online information seeking on the HIV/AIDS pandemic. We acknowledge the limitation that in studying the association between Google search interests on HIV/AIDS and cases/deaths, causal relationships should not be drawn due to the limitations of the data.